This is why I haven't been on line much...

The following article is from the Rumor Queen Site. My heart just fell to my feet reading this, but I have to say that she has been the most upfront blogger that I've read on adoptions...I just hope this time she is wrong:

The Backlog
December 28th, 2009
In June of 2007 I figured the backlog was likely around 29,000. In March of this year I estimated that the backlog at around 23,750.

What is it now? Good question.

Let’s assume the CCAA is currently getting around 50 dossiers a month for the NSN program, and that they referred around 150 NSN babies a month since the last time I figured the backlog. That brings the backlog down by around 100 families per month (not per batch, since there have only been eight batches in ten months: I divided the yearly figure by 12, so this is per month). That brings us down to 22,750. But that’s not what is bringing the backlog down, it is attrition that is bringing the backlog down. We figured attrition at 30% back then, and now it looks like attrition is at 43% gone. Using the bigger attrition number, that brings the backlog down to around 18,300.

Using our Projection Estimates, at 1,000 NSN referrals a year, it will take another 18 years to get through the current backlog if there are no new dossiers. At 1100 referrals a year, it will take another 16 years to get through the backlog. At 1400 referrals a year it will take another 13 years. Based on the batch we are about to get, I’d say that 1,000 NSN referrals a year might be a bit too optimistic.

Even if the backlog is now down to 12,000 (that’s the lowest estimate I’ve seen an agency give, most agencies are up in the 15,000 to 18,000 range when they give an estimate)… anyway, even if we use 12,000 as the backlog figure then we’re still looking at an additional 8 to 12 years (or more) to get through that backlog. Unless, of course, attrition continues to rapidly bring those numbers down. Which is what I think the CCAA is counting on at this point.

No matter how I do the math, it ain’t pretty. I really wish I could come to the blog to post really good news for everyone.